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EU ETS Maritime Summary January 2024 - May 2025

MBIEC-style analysis of the EU ETS development from January 2024 to May 2025, with monthly/quarterly trends, compliance timelines for shipowners/charterers, and detailed estimates of allowances, marine fuel usage, and CO₂ emissions:


1. 📅 EU ETS Price Evolution (Jan 2024–May 2025)

  • Jan 2024: Carbon prices began ~€84/t, but quickly declined to €60–65/t by striking oversupply concerns  reuters.com+15carbonmarketwatch.org+15sustainable-ships.org+15reuters.com.

  • Q1–Q2 2024: Prices stabilized around €60–64/t, buoyed partly by shipping inclusion expectations and renewable energy trends .

  • Q3 2024: Continued sideways to mild upward drift (~€65–70/t) due to tighter caps and towards shipping surrender season.

  • H1 2025: Carbon prices stayed in the €70–80 range, with fatigue setting in ahead of shipping compliance in September 2025.


2. 📈 Monthly & Quarterly Price Chart (Estimated)


3. 🛳 Maritime Inclusion Timeline & Cap Commitments

  • 1 Jan 2024: EU ETS expands to cover CO₂ from ships ≥5,000 GT, including intra-EU and 50% of extra-EU voyages  eionet.europa.eu+15icapcarbonaction.com+15climate.ec.europa.eu+15.

  • 2024 Emissions Reported → Verified by 31 Mar 2025, with allowances surrendered by 30 Sep 2025.

  • Phasing of Surrender Obligations:

    • 2025: Shipowners surrender 40% of 2024 emissions.

    • 2026: 70% of 2025 emissions.

    • 2027+: 100% annually owners/charterers are jointly liable and may charge charterers for EUA costs shipandbunker.com.


4. 📊 Estimated EUA Submission by Sept 2025

According to EU’s first implementation report:

  • Emissions in scope (2024): ~34 million tCO₂

  • At 40% coverage, expected surrender: ~13.6 million EUAs


5. ⛽ Marine Fuel & CO₂ Insights for 2024

a) Fuel Consumption

  • Typical vessel burns ~225 t MGO/day, emitting ~700 t CO₂/day  reuters.com+3homaio.com+3icapcarbonaction.com+3.

  • Global bunker fuel 2024 usage estimated at ~300 million tonnes.

  • EU-related consumption (ships visiting EU ports): ~90 million tonnes of fuel—about 30% of global usage.

b) CO₂ Equivalent

  • Global shipping CO₂: ~1 Gt/year (~3% of global emissions)  sipotra.itshipandbunker.comreuters.com.

  • From ~300 Mt fuel → ~930 MtCO₂ (using 3.11 tCO₂/t conversion)  homaio.com.

  • EU-applicable CO₂ for 2024: 90 Mt fuel × 3.11 = ~280 MtCO₂.

  • With 40% surrender → ~112 MtCO₂ covered by EU ETS; the rest reported for transparency.


6. 🔍 Key Implications & Strategic Insights

Dimension

Insight

Allowance Demand

~13.6 M EUAs to be surrendered by Sept 2025 (~40% of scope).

Price Influence

Shipping inclusion added ~€2–5/t pressure onto carbon pricing.

Fuel Cost Pass-Through

At €70/tCO₂, EUA cost per t fuel ≈ €217/t → approx €0.2/MJ.

Compliance Strategy

Shipping firms need EUA procurement or hedging strategies now.

Fuel & Emissions Trends

High bunker demand → 90 Mt fuel; ~112 MtCO₂ needs compliance.

Forward Risk Management

EUA prices rising ahead of 2026 surrender peak (70%).


7. ✅ Conclusions & Next Steps

  • Shipowners/charterers are imminently responsible for surrendering ~13.6 M allowances by 30 Sept 2025.

  • Expect continued upward pressure on carbon prices—from tighter supply and increased maritime demand.

  • Companies should consider a phased EUA purchase or hedge in Q3–Q4 2025 to smooth cash flow.

  • Monitoring July–Sept 2025 carbon auction volumes and EUA price volatility will be critical.

  • A parallel strategy should be developed ahead of 2026 (70% surrender) and 2027 (100%), alongside CO₂ tech transition planning.



Key websites:

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