Forecast: Container Shipping Outlook | June–December 2025
- FD&A Department
- May 31
- 3 min read
Following a volatile H1 driven by tariff shocks and front-loaded cargoes, the container shipping sector now faces a period of structural correction and realignment.
Here's what MBIEC expects through the rest of 2025 based on current market dynamics, policy signals, and industry feedback:
🔮 1. Volume Forecast: Mild Recovery by Q4
Q3 Outlook: Volumes will remain 10–12% below Q3 2024 levels across U.S. West Coast ports, particularly Long Beach and Los Angeles. Carriers will continue heavy blank sailings to preserve utilization.
Q4 Recovery: If the current 30% tariff plateau holds—and no new rounds are imposed—Q4 imports could stabilize, driven by seasonal retail and electronics restocking (holiday prep and Chinese Singles' Day).
Offsetting Trends:
Diversion to Mexico & Canada: Transshipment via Mexican ports (e.g., Lázaro Cárdenas) and Canadian gateways (e.g., Prince Rupert) will increase, bypassing tariffs and reducing U.S. West Coast throughput.
Nearshoring pickup: Light manufacturing shifts to Mexico and Southeast Asia will pull some volumes off Asia–U.S. lanes and reconfigure vessel routing.
🚢 2. Carrier Strategy: More Tight Control, Alliances Reconfiguring
Blank Sailings Will Normalize: MBIEC expects 25–30% of Asia–U.S. sailings will remain blank through August, easing to ~15% by October as rates normalize.
Alliances May Reshuffle: Carriers are reevaluating cooperation structures as rate volatility and policy-driven shifts alter network economics.
Slow steaming returns: With high fuel costs and surplus tonnage from 2023–25 deliveries, lines will reintroduce slower speeds to absorb excess capacity.
📈 3. Rate Forecast: Short-Term Strength, Then Slide
Near-Term Spike Peaking: Spot rates (e.g., Shanghai–LA ~$5,800/FEU) will peak in late June or early July, supported by reduced supply and panic shipping from mid-sized BCOs (beneficial cargo owners).
Correction Phase: As inventories build and peak season wanes, freight rates will soften. Expect Q4 rates in the $3,000–$3,500/FEU band—still above 2019 but well below recent highs.
Contract Rates Lag Behind: Many 2025 service contracts (signed pre-Q2) are now uneconomical for shippers; carriers may renegotiate terms or increase reliance on premium spot rates.
🌐 4. Geopolitics & Risks
Tariff Policy Still in Flux: Trump’s tariff “pause” expires in Q3. If re-escalation occurs, it could freeze shipping recovery again. Watch for:
U.S. court rulings on tariff legality
WTO response or retaliatory moves from China
Panama Canal Drought & Red Sea Instability: Persistent issues in both regions could distort service patterns and inflate transit times, affecting Asia–U.S. East Coast flows in particular.
📦 5. MBIEC Segment-Level Outlook
Segment | Forecast | Key Insight |
Asia–US West Coast | 🟥 Weak | Still under pressure from tariffs, blank sailings continue |
Asia–US East Coast | 🟧 Mixed | Stable for now, but may see spillover from WC avoidance |
Transatlantic | 🟨 Flat | Low growth, few disruptions, demand muted |
Intra-Asia | 🟩 Resilient | Gains from production shift to Vietnam, India, Malaysia |
Asia–Europe | 🟧 Uncertain | Red Sea risks and weak EU demand balancing each other out |
📌 Final MBIEC Outlook: H2 2025 Summary
Indicator | June–Aug | Sep–Dec |
Volumes (USWC) | ▼ down 10–12% | ◼ stabilizing |
Spot Rates | ▲ short-term up | ▼ declining |
Blank Sailings | ◼ persistently high | ▼ easing |
Carrier Earnings | ▲ peak Q2 | ▼ softer Q4 |
Policy Risk (Tariffs) | 🟧 elevated | 🟥 critical |
MBIEC View: Carriers will steer the remainder of 2025 cautiously. Supply restrictions will continue short-term rate strength into Q3, but unless demand rebounds or tariffs ease, H2 will bring slower growth, lower rates, and increased network recalibration.
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